'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
Almost a decade after India shifted to a formal inflation-targeting regime under the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) framework of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), a high-level panel of economists said that the flexible inflation targeting has largely worked in keeping it under control and no major revamp is required.
The broader Nifty also slipped from record by falling 33.15 points at 10,081.50 as investors booked profits.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years in Governor Sanjay Malhotra's first monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. The meeting of the six-member MPC, which will culminate on Friday, aims to boost sluggish economic growth, which is seen falling to a four-year low. Malhotra took charge as the 26th RBI governor in December last year.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may go for a hike of up to 0.25 per cent in the reverse repo rate at which the RBI absorbs excess liquidity and leave the repo rate at which it lends, to narrow the policy rate corridor, a British brokerage said on Thursday. "Growth concerns amid spread of the Omicron variant and relatively benign inflation out-turns provide the RBI with enough room to maintain its growth-supportive monetary policies," analysts at Barclays said, ahead of the resolution announcement next week. The RBI will hike the reverse repo rate by 0.20-0.25 per cent, given its liquidity management actions, it said.
In its scheme of things, tackling inflation now comes ahead of ensuring growth in the world's sixth largest economy, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Among the Sensex constituents, Bharat Electronics Ltd, Eternal, Trent, Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, State Bank of India, PowerGrid, Asian Paints, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Titan, NTPC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Larsen & Toubro and Bharti Airtel were among the laggards. Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were the only gainers.
Wholesale price inflation (WPI) softened to 0.13 per cent in September on easing in prices of food articles and manufactured items, government data showed on Tuesday. WPI-based inflation was 0.52 per cent in August and 1.91 per cent in September last year.
In the light of credit offtake not picking up despite ample liquidity in the system, the RBI is likely to keep policy rates unchanged in its annual monetary policy, to be unveiled on Tuesday, but may impress upon banks to step up lending to sectors slowing down.
Equity benchmarks ended modestly higher on Friday after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate in an effort to cool stubbornly high inflation and defend the rupee. Continuous foreign fund inflows into the capital markets and softening crude oil prices also helped the bourses regain momentum, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 89.13 points or 0.15 per cent higher at 58,387.93 after facing volatility during the fag-end of trade. During the day, it climbed 350.39 points or 0.60 per cent to 58,649.19. The broader NSE Nifty went up by 15.50 points or 0.09 per cent to finish at 17,397.50.
Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy review in the first week of December, major public sector non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) - the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (Nabard), Small Industries Development Bank of India (Sidbi), Power Finance Corporation (PFC), and Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) - plan to raise up to Rs 24,000 crore together through bond issuancesk.
Benchmark interest rate hiked by 50 basis points to 3-year high at 5.90 per cent. Economic growth projection for FY23 cut to 7% from 7.2% estimated in August. GDP expected to grow at 6.3% in September quarter, 4.6% each in December and March quarters.
For five consecutive policy reviews in 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) chose to hold rates, citing inflation threat. And when the prices did cool off a bit, it reminded all about the target to get the headline consumer price inflation at 4 per cent and the risks from food inflation. Heading into the new year, all eyes are on when RBI will cut the rates, especially after one of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members stressed on the need for such an action in the face of the US Federal Reserve's guidance for easing rates.
Sensex climbs higher at close, bluechip stocks in focus.
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
The highlights of RBI's bi-monthly monetary policy announced by Governor Shaktikanta Das:
There is high demand for the US currency from importers
Among Sensex firms, ITC, Bharti Airtel, Trent, Bajaj Finserv, Titan and Reliance Industries were the major laggards. However, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, Tata Motors, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Finance and Hindustan Unilever were among the major gainers.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain status quo on interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising inflation on account of geopolitical developments.
'Retail portfolios were going nowhere even as headline indices moved higher, prompting investors to sell holdings and shift money to IPOs, attracted by listing-day gains.'
The minutes of the December MPC meet reveal members felt the current spike in the headline inflation rate was due to a temporary supply shock on the food front, expected to moderate by the second quarter of 2020-21.
Investment trend by foreign investors will also be closely watched for stock movement
Rs 5,000 crore additional liquidity facility to be provided by the National Housing Bank to boost liquidity in housing sector, the RBI said.
While the economy seems to be on a firm growth path, the fight against inflation is not over yet. Shaktikanta Das seems to be in no hurry. After playing well through a five-year Test match, he doesn't want to get out hit wicket, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday affirmed its commitment to continue with its supervisory measures aimed at early identification of risks and vulnerabilities. The central bank would also focus on enhancing cyber resilience and capabilities of Supervised Entities (SEs) by implementing the recommendations of the inter-regulatory Working Group, which has uniform baseline cybersecurity guidelines for financial entities, it said in its annual report.
The central bank was widely expected to maintain status quo.
Since taking over at RBI on September 4, Governor Raghuram Rajan has twice hiked the repo rate -- at which the central bank lends to banks -- to 7.75 per cent, seeking to tame inflation.
Despite sharp interest rate cuts expected in this financial year amid easy liquidity conditions, state-run banks are treading cautiously on their loan growth projections for FY26. Most large banks are projecting loan growth at 11-13 per cent, almost similar to the previous financial year.
From the Sensex firms, Tata Motors jumped the most by 5.54 per cent, followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank, Trent, Sun Pharma, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank. However, Bajaj Finance, State Bank of India, UltraTech Cement and Tata Steel were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on benchmark rate mainly on account of uncertainty over the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the fears of firming inflation may also refrain the MPC from tinkering with the interest rate in its bi-monthly monetary policy outcome to be announced on Friday. The RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged at the last MPC meeting held in April.
It is the six per cent target RBI is more concerned about.
Auto stocks will be in focus
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said India's economic growth will exceed 6.5 per cent in the next fiscal, up from 6.3 per cent this year, on higher government capex and consumption boost from tax cuts and interest rate reduction. Projecting a stable outlook for the banking sector, Moody's said although the operating environment of Indian banks will remain favourable in the next fiscal, their asset quality will deteriorate moderately after substantial improvements in recent years, with some stress in unsecured retail loans, microfinance loans and small business loans.
The RBI has changed the way it approached supervision in the past. Having seen a couple of collapses in the NBFC sector and the near-collapse of a few banks, it is focusing on regular drills to prevent a fire from breaking out, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
'The statistical confidence bands of the fan charts of the forecasts will provide a better sense of the potential variability of outcomes.'
The RBI expects CPI inflation to fall from 5.8% in Jan '16 to 4.8% in Jan-Mar '17.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday said the exchange rate policy has remained consistent over the years and the central bank does not target any 'specific level or band' of the rupee, which slipped to an all-time low of 87.59 to a US dollar. On Thursday, the rupee plunged 16 paise to close at a record low of 87.59 against the American currency. "I would like to mention here that the Reserve Bank's exchange rate policy has remained consistent over the years.
With retail inflation witnessing significant uptick in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in its August monetary policy review, according to a report. According to the SBI's research report- Ecowrap, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months due to several global and domestic factors. "We expect a status-quo in August. We believe RBI would still try to find a marriage of convenience of regulatory and developmental measures and monetary policy in August policy," the research report said on Wednesday.
In response to the panic triggered by Trump's trade policies, the RBI net sold approximately $43 billion in the second half of FY25 to curb volatility, as the rupee plunged to a low of 87.95 per dollar in February this year.
